‘What Machine Learning Can Tell Us About the Post-Pandemic Labour Market’: A Glimpse into the ‘Future of Work’
Dr. Yigit Aydede, Sobey’s School of Buisness. Photo by SMU.
We are all living through strange times, wrought with worries about our safety, health, and concerns over what life is going to be like in the aftermath of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. As students, it is natural to worry about the future of our educational and employment prospects. In light of this concern, the Sobey School of Business at Saint Mary’s held a virtual event on August 7th, 2020. Titled ‘What Machine Learning Can Tell Us About the Post-Pandemic Labour Market’, the webinar was presided over by Dr. Yigit Aydede. An associate professor of Economics at SMU, Dr. Aydede spoke about the effect of digitization on the job market before and after the pandemic.
Talking about the ‘Future of Work,’ Dr. Aydede explained how “machine learning” will transform the labour market after the pandemic. He also spoke about “automation” which involves replacing manual (human) labour with machines. “Automation happens in bursts, concentrated especially in bad times like the wake of economic shocks,” he stated. Even in the pre-pandemic era, Dr. Aydede explained that data shows that “32% of jobs [were] likely to be reshaped.” This means that the gradual shift to technological alternatives had already been in motion before the pandemic struck. However, the economic repercussions wrought by the ongoing COVID-19 crisis have only served to speed up this shift. Although it can be deduced that the pandemic will drastically alter the labour market, “we don’t know what jobs are going to look like after COVID-19,” said Dr. Aydede. The data shows that nearly 1 in 2 people are going to be affected by the pandemic. Dr. Aydede also affirmed that “we don’t know what new occupations will come up” once the pandemic is behind us. Such conditions make it hard for us to speculate on the various aspects of the post-pandemic labour market as there are a lot of possibilities that can stem as a result.
Since the spread of COVID-19, jobs have shifted from working in the office to working at home. Many companies scrambled to make the best use of the “available digital resources, making labour less needed,” says Dr. Aydede. He also stated that people in smaller cities will be more affected than those in larger cities. This is understandable as larger cities are more technologically advanced than smaller ones.
There are also mounting concerns over the “technological unemployment” caused by active shifts to a digital work platform. Technological unemployment refers to jobs being lost due to increased reliance on technological advancements like artificial intelligence and robotics. This hits close to home as we are becoming more dependent on technology for the simplest of tasks in our daily lives. Dr. Aydede also talked about the concepts of job polarization and jobless recoveries. Job polarization involves the decreasing importance of unskilled labour whereas jobless recoveries refers to the reduced ability of the job market to restore employment rates to its previous state after recent recessions. He mentioned that this is evidenced by the gradual disappearance of routine occupations (e.g., mechanics, plumbers, drivers, etc.), which according to Dr. Aydede constitute about 50% of total employment. This decreased ability of the economy to rebound after an economic crisis is a worrying situation for students as this can result in less job opportunities for us. Hence, it is very important for students to be more technologically trained in order to meet the demands of a more tech-savvy economic climate.
Dr. Aydede also pointed out that an estimated 40% of jobs were already at risk in Canada before the pandemic began. This is mainly due to the rising reliance on artificial intelligence instead of humans, and the fact that Canada is the third major Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) country in the world to turn to robots for labour. However, Dr. Aydede stated that “despite job losses due to [the increased reliance on] robots, [an] increase in routine jobs (e.g. mechanics, plumbers, drivers, etc.) can be observed in OECD countries.” In spite of that, it is also imperative to point out that while some occupations might not be that affected by machine learning, those that are most likely to be affected are lower-wage, routine jobs.
Dr. Aydede also touched on the subject of the general fear brewing among many Canadian employees that their job skills will become redundant in the near future due to the massive, rapid digitization happening across the world. In order to keep up with the fast-paced, ever-evolving global market, people are now opting to seek special technical training (e.g. coding, software development, programming, etc.) in a desperate bid to update their skills and maintain their range of employment options. As students, it would be in our best interests to follow suit. Echoing the words from a well-known Economics paper, Dr. Aydede referred to this as “the race between man and machine.”
Photo by Markus Winkler on Unsplash
“Machine Learning,” Dr. Aydede explains, “is a subfield of artificial intelligence used to develop algorithms for prediction [of the job market].” He also noted that there is an online course on Machine Learning which is currently available on Coursera for those who would like to learn more about it. Speaking more on the effect machine learning will have on labour, Dr. Aydede said, “people in lower wage jobs will be disproportionately affected” which also includes retail and transportation workers. This is because they are more easily and rapidly being replaced by machines. Dr. Aydede explained that the situation is far more complicated than we can determine because even with machine learning, we cannot make accurate predictions about every aspect of a job. Hence, effects on employment are more complex than “the simple replacement and substitution (or compliment) story emphasized by some,” he explained.
COVID -19 has caused concerns to resurface regarding the impact of technological advancements on the future of work. If anything, the pandemic has only accelerated the chances of “technological unemployment” becoming more common in the labour market. “It has pushed the clock forward on widespread digital transformation that might otherwise have taken years to occur,” said Dr. Aydede. In fact, the current economic repercussions of the pandemic do not bode well for students who will be entering the job market in the near future. In addition to that, he also mentioned that a possible increase in unemployment caused by this technological advancement will make human labour cheaper.
Of the jobs at high-risk in Nova Scotia, Dr. Aydede stated that “educational services, healthcare & social assistance, retail, accommodation/food services, administrative/support services, and waste/remediation services” will be among the most affected. Additionally, “information, business, financial and educational services are likely to remain remote jobs for a while,” he said. This is a perturbing situation for students as many of these positions are held by high school and college students working part-time while studying and after graduation.
Dr. Aydede contended that the major problem faced by digital firms presently is the “shortage of digital talent,” since the pandemic has abruptly spurred the need for digitization. In view of this, reliance on artificial intelligence is a necessary evil that will “bring unfair, imperfect competitiveness in many local markets,” he confirmed. This is because technological development is essential to the economy of Nova Scotia in keeping up with the rest of the world. Dr. Aydede also pointed out that a “weak technological adoption poses a risk to Nova Scotia’s future growth and competitiveness” due to its unfavourable effect on the economy and therefore, on jobs. This is yet another worrying situation for students as the job market has gotten a lot more competitive, making it harder to find postgraduate work. It has become necessary for students to be more technically skilled in order to combat the increase in technological demands on the labour economy.
During the Q&A session, Dr. Aydede confirmed one participant’s suspicion that increased automation will lead to a wage redistribution pattern. A wage redistribution pattern means the reallocation of wealth in a society and/or nation. He also added that the pandemic has heightened job polarization in the labour market, meaning that now more than ever, routine jobs (e.g. mechanics, plumbers, drivers, etc.) are at a risk. Dr. Aydede concluded the webinar by saying that the future of the economy is vested in the hands of the government and the public. Through cooperation and coalition, he believes we will be able to get through this.
As students who will soon enter the job market, such an alteration in the economy is indeed worrisome to us. The best thing we can do right now is to keep ourselves informed and become more tech-savvy in the sense that we need to acquaint ourselves better with newer forms of technology, which will aid us when we begin our professional careers. At the very least, this would mean signing up for more Computer Science elective courses at university. Additionally, the Career Services department at SMU is a great resource that every student must be sure to take advantage of. You can get in touch with them at cel@smu.ca for more information regarding employment opportunities and for queries related to your co-curricular record.
Photo by Andy Kelly on Unsplash